The best of this election with respect to Orissa is that it has made BJP to be an inconsequential party in Orissa. In 2009 BJP has less assembly seats (6) from Orissa than it had parliament seats (7) in 2004 and it has ZERO parliament seats from Orissa in 2009. I hope BJP learns the lesson that people of Orissa do not fall for BJP’s agendas, they like peace and they were horrified by the happenings in Kandhamala and the ensuing bad name Orissa got worldwide. BJP showed its true colors by picking people like Ashok Sahu as its MP candidate from Kandhamala and Manoj Pradhan (who is accused of violence in Kandhamal  and is currently in jail) as its MLA candidate from G. Udaygiri. Unfortunately Manoj Pradhan won in G. Udaygiri. But fortunately the total tally of BJP in Orissa is SIX.

Now many BJP leaders are creating the spin that they have not done that bad nationally; and its just that Congress took over many of the third front seats. Although that is kind of true, it would be a mistake for BJP to not learn the lesson that at the India level there are fewer takers of its agenda and image. In this I agree with Swapan Dasgupta in this article in Pioneer. Following are some excerpts.

There is a facile explanation that many of those who neither anticipated nor wished for a Congress victory in the general election may fall back on. It goes something like this: the Congress and UPA surge was contributed by its spectacular successes in Kerala, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where its principal opponent was either the Left or another constituent of the ramshackle Third Front. The implication is that the NDA by and large held its ground.

Such an explanation would be an exercise in complete self-delusion. …

In the coming days, debate in the BJP is certain to centre on the question: what went wrong? Such a debate is not only necessary but welcome. Unfortunately, past experience suggests that the discussions often veer in the direction of the peripherals. There will be hand-wringing over the “internal sabotage” in Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand; speculation over why Om Prakash Chauthala rather than Bhajan Lal was chosen as the coalition partner in Haryana; mutterings over whimsical choice of candidates in some seats of Uttar Pradesh; and the inevitable back-biting over the campaign in the mass media.

It is not that these concerns are unwarranted. However, presuming that everything had turned out perfectly, the BJP and NDA would, at best, have improved its tally only marginally by, say, 15 seats. It wouldn’t have made any material difference to the outcome. Voters, it must be remembered, aren’t automatically swayed by the same concerns as activists.

In undertaking a post-mortem, it is important to not lose sight of the big picture. The BJP and NDA lost because voters found the Congress a more appealing prospect.  …

What was not neutralised was the overall image problem of the BJP—as a party that is backward-looking, too shrill and insufficiently attentive to contemporary concerns.

Arguably, such a regressive image of the party may be a consequence of media-generated “false consciousness”. But the fact remains that this perception has percolated down to a very large section of the population. And the BJP has done precious little to counter it.

In the wake of defeat, there is always a strong temptation to retreat into a back-to-the-basics shell. This is based on the foolish belief that people didn’t vote for a party because it wasn’t sufficiently pure. The belief is as ridiculous as the suggestion that the Soviet Union fell because it wasn’t adequately socialist! …

At the national level, image has come back to haunt the party—a problem compounded by leaders who believe it is more important to please activists rather than be responsive to ground realities.

I agree with most of the above analysis. If BJP needs to survive and do well it must desist from always pleasing its activists, disassociate itself from hate speeches (like the one allegedly given by Varun Gandhi), hate activities (like the ones in Kandhamala, post-Godhra, and to some ecxtent in Karnataka) and correct some of the wrongs that it has been associated with. If that means dumping some of its star leaders associated (rightly or wrongly) with this hate , that needs to be done. Where perception is important, hiding behind legalieties and smart-aleck statements like "If I have done what people are accusing me of, put me in jail" won’t cut it. People of India are not that stupid. They can see through such statements. (BJP should learn from Congress’s performance in Delhi and Punjab which is being partly attributed to its dropping tainted Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar from MP candidacy.)

Thus if BJP doesn’t do some housecleaning starting with cutting ties with activists who preach hate as well as  leaders who are associated with hate, they will also keep losing more allies – Nitish Kumar’s party is expected to be the next, and will keep moving away from power nationally. 

 

I came across a blog entry by Dilip D’Souza. I agree with one of the comments there. It says: 

Dilip is right. Centre Right is wide open and it is for BJP’s taking. It has proven credentials on this side. It can move into this house straightaway. All it needs to do is to jettison Modi, Varun etc. It should reduce Hindutva to the level of fighting appeasement politics. It will get its day in the sun.

Many of the comments mentioned in B. Raman’s article at http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/may/17/loksabhapoll-shock-and-awe-on-pro-hindutva-web-sites.htm also make a lot of sense. Following is a sample.

1. ‘I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India.’

4. … I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performance of BJP.’

… You also don’t want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi [Images] played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP’s reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction.’

‘Remember how George W Bush [Images] disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line, he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the deputy commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Schwarzkopf fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless.’

…’Beating up couples on Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Taliban [Images]isation and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Chennai who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement.’

‘Like the old saying: A drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk.

… Then the alienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them.’

‘Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there is no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion. The ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. It’s the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them, these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.’

…”On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, colour TV or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks big time.

Some excerpts from http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/ and comments there in.

4. Riots have consequences we can no longer be in denial on VHP’s conduct. There has to be accountability for the riot in Orissa.

10. Last but not the least, it would be in complete denial if it did not ask tough questions of how Acts of Adharma in the name of Hindutva have been condoned and the relevance of Hindutva as an ideology to guide on Socio-Economic issues.

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/#comment-45183

I strongly believe they have support on issues like minority appeasement and they are capable of creating a strong development platform. But the image BJP has created for itself, that of an extremist party, has alienated voters who would otherwise agree with them on many issues.

1. Ditch the RSS, Bajrang Dal etc : Imposing your idea of Hindutva and Hindu culture on the diverse Hindu population of India is NEVER going to work. It will only serve to shrink your Hindu base. Focus on issues, issues, issues – not people’s nightlife.

2. Ditch Modi : I am afraid the BJP is going to take up Modi as a leader and seal its own fate. This would be a huge mistake. They need a young moderate face. As one commentator pointed out – image is everything. I would not even call the Congress a political party – i think they are family business whose sole purpose is to perpetuate dynastic rule. But the image on the surface is suave enough to fool people.

3. Keep with the internal party democracy : I think this is what makes BJP a credible political party and wins it respect. If anything they need to strengthen it and consciously groom more leaders.

4. Strengthen the moderate voices and talk ISSUES from a principled perspective. Talk about true secularism and what it means, take about an inclusive India but one that does not compromise on its principles to appease minorities. Talk about development and your vision. Take the higher road. Mainstream Hindus want BJP to fight these issues through legislative means, not on the streets like a bunch of goons. Means have always been important to the Indian people. BJP needs to rise, elevate the dialogue and earn respect. It is possible to raise these issues without being jingoistic.

I am praying that the BJP is able to transform itself into a right-of-center party. Its voice is sorely needed on the Indian political landscape.

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/#comment-45238 .

… a great observation – why DID the blame for Ram Sene stick to BJP? Very simple: if you don’t protect your brand then your competition will smear it and destroy it. Did the BJP do anything to counter that positioning of blame? Mere statements of disassociation with SRS from RSS or BJP are not enough, they need to launch solid campaigns and ensure that their message overwhelms the competing message. How can I counter the ladies in my family who voted against the BJP saying that “BJP is so communal – their people beat up women in Mangalore!! Chhi, chhi – so horrible they are!”. Logic doesn’t work, boss – that image has been formed and reinforced 1000 times with every possible outlet from the mainstream media, or even by hundreds of blogs.

Look, it’s a dirty game – one of the oldest tricks in marketing is for you to define the competitor’s position if they haven’t done it themselves. For years and years, BJP has been defined and confined to a small space defined by attributes such as “violent” and “communal” by the Congress while claiming the “secular” and “progressive” space for itself. It’s a huge disadvantage to the BJP because in the battle for converting a Congress voter to the BJP, BJP is forced to be either on the defensive (if the target is an educated secular voter) or go to the other extreme and actually go further into the “communal” positioning (if the target is a communally polarised voter) like Varun Gandhi did. This is not a winnable strategy! BJP cannot deliver the brand promise to either of these segments, and will eventually lose them.