___________

This has two aspects.

• Which party in power in Orissa is good for Orissa?
• Which party in the center is good for Orissa?

My analysis is that for the first part, a strong regional party with a leader of stature is good for Orissa. National parties even make their decisions regarding who will contest from where in Delhi. A national party in power in Orissa will not be able to strongly make a case for Orissa. They can not threaten the government in Delhi even if the same party is in the government. As it stands now they are always afraid to speak up to their leaders lest they lose their privileges. Also the Orissa leaders of the national parties (BJP and Congress) do not have a national stature. However, with coalition governments and alliances to stay, a regional party whether in the coalition in Delhi or not, will be valued. If they are in the coalition, they will be valued because their withdrawal of support may  weaken the government, if not bring it down. If they are not in the coalition, they will still be valued, especially if the party has a strong leader, because the government coalition will want to keep the regional party in good humor as they may need them in the future. For example, the UPA government needed SP. They also were attentive to BJD and the Orissa CM. The strong leader part is important as the government coalition can depend on the words of the strong leader of the regional party. Unlike many of the regional parties in the other states, such as Mayavati’s BSP, the focus of the regional parties in Orissa (BJD and Samrudha Orissa) is the development of Orissa, and not the PM’s post in Delhi. Among the two main regional parties in Orissa, BJD and Samrudha Orissa, BJD supremo has a national stature; so much so that some consider him to be a sleeper PM candidate for the third front. (It is great that he has categorically said that he has no interest in that job.) After winning two consecutive 5 year terms, if BJD wins a third term, the stature of Naveen Patnaik will be further enhanced nationally and if he then goes to Delhi with a demand, he will be heard. The weight of his voice during the last couple of years was evident from the approval of the Vijaywada-Ranchi highway, and Orissa being given a NISER, an IIT, a national university and a central university. He still has many unfinished business such as ad valorem mineral royaly, lack of progress on the AIIMS-like institute in Bhubaneswar, Railway in KBK and Kandhamala, etc. With him at the helm, Orissa has the best chance to make progress on those unfinished issues as well as new issues. Thus, in my opinion, in the elections 2009, it is best for Orissa, if the BJD makes the governemnt in Orissa, and has sufficient number of MPs (say 15-16) to consist a crucial block that either the central government depends on directly or as a fall back option for the future.

Now lets move to the second question. Which government in Delhi is best for Orissa?

A somewhat stable government that partially depends or expects to depend on the leading party from Orissa, BJD, is good for Orissa. Stability is important because otherwise policy decisions won’t get implemented properly and in a timely manner. For example, none of the proposed 14 national universities have started yet. The act involving them could not be agreed upon and thus was not presented  in the parliament. Thus one has to wait till the next government is formed to act on it. For stability reasons, a Third front government is not good. Moreover, a third front government may lead to PM candidates like Mayavati or Lalu Yadav who do not have a national view and are prone to siphoning off large chunks of the budget to their own states. Thats exactly what Lalu Yadav did with respect to Railway largeese to his home state. While for Orissa, both NDA and UPA, may work, the NDA needs to again lose this election because of the divisive policies and practices of the Sangh Parivaar, especially in Karnataka and Orissa. The alleged violence by Sangh Parivaar members in Karnataka (Bangalore, Mangalore) and Orissa (Kandhamala) are reprehensible and a party (BJP) and a coalition (NDA) that could have connections to such violence is not fit to lead India. That leaves us only UPA. An UPA with Manmohan Singh at the helm, who has been acquainted about Orissa issues during the last 3 years by Naveen Patnaik and Orissa MPs, and that depends on a BJD MP contingent of 15+ MPs will be the best for Orissa and the country.