Post ballot predictions on the elections: collection in progress; make your own prediction
Elections 2009 April 29th. 2009, 6:14pm(Note to readers: Please make your own prediction. Also, if you see any other newspaper making a prediction, please give us a link. Thanks.)
Sarat Pattanayak in his Capital notes in Pioneer:
The BJD, they predict, will emerge as the single largest party with 60 to 65 seats. The Congress will get 50 to 55 seats and the BJP will have 15 to 20 seats.
Sanjeev Patro in his article in expressbuzz.com:
The final tally could be somewhat like this. The INC might muster 50, BJD slip to 56-58 seats and BJP get around 25 seats and others including JMM, Independents and Left parties between 13-16 seats.
NDTV’s prediction about the MPs after the second phase of elections, which it calls as trends emerging:
NDA – 3, Congress – 10 and Third Front (including BJD) – 8
NDTV’s Gfk Mode opinion Poll:
NDA : 2-4, Congress: 7-9 and Third Front (including BJD) – 9-11
Times of India reports on BJD strategist and Rajya Sabha MP Pyari babu’s estimates for BJD. Following are some excerpts:
"We are getting a minimum of 85 Assembly and 12 Lok Sabha seats. There cannot be any dispute on this figure," BJD Rajya Sabha MP and party’s chief poll strategist Pyari Mohan Mohapatra told TOI. …
The numbers refuse to go below 85. This includes 38 from constituencies that went to polls in the first phase and 47 from those in the second phase," he asserted.
Mohapatra even predicted the "possibility of the number of seats going up further". "In at least 33 Assembly constituencies, BJD has a 50 per cent chance. Anything can happen," he said.
Mohapatra has all bad news for his "enemy" Bijay Mohapatra, who fought from his traditional Patkura Assembly constituency on BJP ticket. "He is losing. The margin could be 7,000 to 8,000 votes this time," he said emphatically. "Had Bijay Mohapatra contested as an Independent, we would have been in trouble. But things became easier for us after he joined BJP," he observed. He had the similar prediction for BJP’s Puri LS candidate Braja Kishore Tripathy, who quit BJD after Naveen Patnaik gave the ticket to Pinaki Mishra, who left Congress. "Tripathy would be defeated," he claimed. "We will bag 12 LS seats. This could also go up because in Berhampur, Koraput and Jajpur anything may happen," he added.
Mohapatra did not sound very optimistic about BJP‘s performance and said the saffron brigade might have to content with less than 15 Assembly seats. "My reading is that if the BJP is reduced to single digit the Congress tally could go up to 45," pointed out.
Mohapatra had his reasons behind the likely victory of his party. "The BJP fought the elections on a negative note of constantly criticizing BJD as a traitor. It might work for a few days, but not always. The party had also no chief ministerial candidate to project before the voters. The Congress had the same problem and it remained embroiled in its own problems wasting much of its time. But we were far ahead in making preparations. Naveen Patnaik is our sole star attraction whom the voters see as transparent and clean. And there was the Rs two rice and concrete roads to villages made us invincible," he maintained, adding "The body language of people attending our meetings gave firm indications that we are going to turn the table on others."
April 30th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
That is a dumb analysis and not grounded on evidence.Writer basically pulled out some numbers based on his bias.Since we are talking about bias my bias is with BJD.I beleive that underlying resentment towards central parties are real and PM Mohapatra is a smart man to understand this.I have read his interview and watched the interview of Naveen.I perceive BJD will sweep the elections, both for assembly and parliamentary elections.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Also it’s important to understand that there is no other sentiment more basic, more elementary than the sentiment of
I vs HIM, US vs THEM.It’s already taken root in many south indian states.That’s why it has to be one of Dravidian parties that always win in TN.How well Congress or Bjp is doing over there?I beleive that even though it has taken us awhile, Oriyas in general have taken to similar sentiment owing to years of central govt neglect.I beleive that the surge in Oriya pride is a secular one and hence betting on BJD to cash in on that.
May 1st, 2009 at 2:49 am
This is derogatory to pit the state vs the center and get votes by exploiting emotions. India is not an alian land that Oriyas will get swayed away by such a sentiment. Gujart, Haryana and Delhi have progressed not just because they have anti-center political parties, even a national party can invoke state pride and Gujarat has done this to its advantage. Irrespective of the result of Orissa elections, one issue which I think was uppermost in the elections was local candidate. Whichever Party had better candidates at the local level will win this elections as people have become smarter to understand the nuances political Parties to win over their vote by deceit. But on the whole the State elections in Orissa was much murkier this time than ever before and the ruling party in the state had also a role to play in this as cases of booth capturing and rigging are pouring in with each passing day. But, for the benefit of the state any one party should get majority on its own.