___________

The detailed party position is as follows:

UNITED PROGRESSIVE ALLIANCE – 262

• Congress – 206
•  Trinamool Congress – 19
•  DMK – 18
•  Nationalist Congress Party – 9
•  National Conference – 3
•  Jharkhand Mukti Morcha – 2
•  Muslim League Kerala State Committee – 2
•  All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen – 1
•  Bodoland People’s Front – 1
•  Kerala Congress (Mani) – 1

 NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE – 159

•  Bharatiya Janata Party – 116
•  Janata Dal-United – 20
•  Shiv Sena – 11
•  Rashtriya Lok Dal – 5
•  Akali Dal – 4
•  Telangana Rashtra Samithi – 2
•  Asom Gana Parishad – 1

 THIRD FRONT – 80

•  Bahujan Samaj Party – 21
•  CPI-M – 16
•  Biju Janata Dal – 14
•  AIADMK – 9
•  Telegu Desam Party – 6
•  CPI – 4
•  Janata Dal-Secular – 3
•  Forward Bloc – 2
•  Revolutionary Socialist Party – 2
•  MDMK – 1
•  Haryana Janhit Congress – 1
•  Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – 1

FOURTH FRONT – 26

•  Samajwadi Party – 22
•  Rashtriya Janata Dal – 4

OTHERS – 15

•  Independents – 9
•  Assam United Democratic Front – 1
•  Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi – 1
•  Swabhimani Paksha – 1
•  Nagaland People’s Front – 1
•  Sikkim Democratic Front – 1
•  VCK – 1

The six Congress MPs from Orissa are:

• Sanjay Bhoi from Bargarh
• Hemanand Biswal from Sundergarh (he defeated Jual Oram)
• Amarnath Pradhan from Sambalpur (he defeated Rohit Pujari)
• Srikant Jena from Balasore
• Bhakta Das from Kalahandi
• Pradeep Majhi from Nabarangpur

Sanjay Bhoi is considered a young leader. Hemanad Biswal is a tribal and was CM of Orissa before and the fact that he defeated a BJP national level official further increases his stature. Amarnath Pradhan has been a minster in Orissa. His nomination forced Rohit Pujari to quit Congress and join BJD and run against him. Srikant Jena has been a cabinet minister in the center. Bhakta Das has been a state minister in the center. I don’t know much about Pradeep Majhi. (Update: There is a profile article on Pradeep Majhi in http://www.breakingnewsonline.net/2009/05/youth-power-indian-youth-congress.html. and another one in http://news4u.co.in/?p=9577. He is 32 years old and a youth Congress leader.)

Based on the above, one (or hopefully both) of Hemanand Biswal  and Srikant Jena may become a cabinet minister in Delhi. Bhakta Das has a good chance of becoming a minister in Delhi.

The best of this election with respect to Orissa is that it has made BJP to be an inconsequential party in Orissa. In 2009 BJP has less assembly seats (6) from Orissa than it had parliament seats (7) in 2004 and it has ZERO parliament seats from Orissa in 2009. I hope BJP learns the lesson that people of Orissa do not fall for BJP’s agendas, they like peace and they were horrified by the happenings in Kandhamala and the ensuing bad name Orissa got worldwide. BJP showed its true colors by picking people like Ashok Sahu as its MP candidate from Kandhamala and Manoj Pradhan (who is accused of violence in Kandhamal  and is currently in jail) as its MLA candidate from G. Udaygiri. Unfortunately Manoj Pradhan won in G. Udaygiri. But fortunately the total tally of BJP in Orissa is SIX.

Now many BJP leaders are creating the spin that they have not done that bad nationally; and its just that Congress took over many of the third front seats. Although that is kind of true, it would be a mistake for BJP to not learn the lesson that at the India level there are fewer takers of its agenda and image. In this I agree with Swapan Dasgupta in this article in Pioneer. Following are some excerpts.

There is a facile explanation that many of those who neither anticipated nor wished for a Congress victory in the general election may fall back on. It goes something like this: the Congress and UPA surge was contributed by its spectacular successes in Kerala, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where its principal opponent was either the Left or another constituent of the ramshackle Third Front. The implication is that the NDA by and large held its ground.

Such an explanation would be an exercise in complete self-delusion. …

In the coming days, debate in the BJP is certain to centre on the question: what went wrong? Such a debate is not only necessary but welcome. Unfortunately, past experience suggests that the discussions often veer in the direction of the peripherals. There will be hand-wringing over the “internal sabotage” in Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand; speculation over why Om Prakash Chauthala rather than Bhajan Lal was chosen as the coalition partner in Haryana; mutterings over whimsical choice of candidates in some seats of Uttar Pradesh; and the inevitable back-biting over the campaign in the mass media.

It is not that these concerns are unwarranted. However, presuming that everything had turned out perfectly, the BJP and NDA would, at best, have improved its tally only marginally by, say, 15 seats. It wouldn’t have made any material difference to the outcome. Voters, it must be remembered, aren’t automatically swayed by the same concerns as activists.

In undertaking a post-mortem, it is important to not lose sight of the big picture. The BJP and NDA lost because voters found the Congress a more appealing prospect.  …

What was not neutralised was the overall image problem of the BJP—as a party that is backward-looking, too shrill and insufficiently attentive to contemporary concerns.

Arguably, such a regressive image of the party may be a consequence of media-generated “false consciousness”. But the fact remains that this perception has percolated down to a very large section of the population. And the BJP has done precious little to counter it.

In the wake of defeat, there is always a strong temptation to retreat into a back-to-the-basics shell. This is based on the foolish belief that people didn’t vote for a party because it wasn’t sufficiently pure. The belief is as ridiculous as the suggestion that the Soviet Union fell because it wasn’t adequately socialist! …

At the national level, image has come back to haunt the party—a problem compounded by leaders who believe it is more important to please activists rather than be responsive to ground realities.

I agree with most of the above analysis. If BJP needs to survive and do well it must desist from always pleasing its activists, disassociate itself from hate speeches (like the one allegedly given by Varun Gandhi), hate activities (like the ones in Kandhamala, post-Godhra, and to some ecxtent in Karnataka) and correct some of the wrongs that it has been associated with. If that means dumping some of its star leaders associated (rightly or wrongly) with this hate , that needs to be done. Where perception is important, hiding behind legalieties and smart-aleck statements like "If I have done what people are accusing me of, put me in jail" won’t cut it. People of India are not that stupid. They can see through such statements. (BJP should learn from Congress’s performance in Delhi and Punjab which is being partly attributed to its dropping tainted Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar from MP candidacy.)

Thus if BJP doesn’t do some housecleaning starting with cutting ties with activists who preach hate as well as  leaders who are associated with hate, they will also keep losing more allies – Nitish Kumar’s party is expected to be the next, and will keep moving away from power nationally. 

I came across a blog entry by Dilip D’Souza. I agree with one of the comments there. It says: 

Dilip is right. Centre Right is wide open and it is for BJP’s taking. It has proven credentials on this side. It can move into this house straightaway. All it needs to do is to jettison Modi, Varun etc. It should reduce Hindutva to the level of fighting appeasement politics. It will get its day in the sun.

Many of the comments mentioned in B. Raman’s article at http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/may/17/loksabhapoll-shock-and-awe-on-pro-hindutva-web-sites.htm also make a lot of sense. Following is a sample.

1. ‘I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India.’

4. … I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performance of BJP.’

… You also don’t want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi [Images] played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP’s reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction.’

‘Remember how George W Bush [Images] disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line, he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the deputy commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Schwarzkopf fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless.’

…’Beating up couples on Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Taliban [Images]isation and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Chennai who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement.’

‘Like the old saying: A drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk.

… Then the alienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them.’

‘Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there is no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion. The ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. It’s the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them, these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.’

…”On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, colour TV or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks big time.

4. Riots have consequences we can no longer be in denial on VHP’s conduct. There has to be accountability for the riot in Orissa.

10. Last but not the least, it would be in complete denial if it did not ask tough questions of how Acts of Adharma in the name of Hindutva have been condoned and the relevance of Hindutva as an ideology to guide on Socio-Economic issues.

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/#comment-45183

I strongly believe they have support on issues like minority appeasement and they are capable of creating a strong development platform. But the image BJP has created for itself, that of an extremist party, has alienated voters who would otherwise agree with them on many issues.

1. Ditch the RSS, Bajrang Dal etc : Imposing your idea of Hindutva and Hindu culture on the diverse Hindu population of India is NEVER going to work. It will only serve to shrink your Hindu base. Focus on issues, issues, issues – not people’s nightlife.

2. Ditch Modi : I am afraid the BJP is going to take up Modi as a leader and seal its own fate. This would be a huge mistake. They need a young moderate face. As one commentator pointed out – image is everything. I would not even call the Congress a political party – i think they are family business whose sole purpose is to perpetuate dynastic rule. But the image on the surface is suave enough to fool people.

3. Keep with the internal party democracy : I think this is what makes BJP a credible political party and wins it respect. If anything they need to strengthen it and consciously groom more leaders.

4. Strengthen the moderate voices and talk ISSUES from a principled perspective. Talk about true secularism and what it means, take about an inclusive India but one that does not compromise on its principles to appease minorities. Talk about development and your vision. Take the higher road. Mainstream Hindus want BJP to fight these issues through legislative means, not on the streets like a bunch of goons. Means have always been important to the Indian people. BJP needs to rise, elevate the dialogue and earn respect. It is possible to raise these issues without being jingoistic.

I am praying that the BJP is able to transform itself into a right-of-center party. Its voice is sorely needed on the Indian political landscape.

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/#comment-45238 .

… a great observation – why DID the blame for Ram Sene stick to BJP? Very simple: if you don’t protect your brand then your competition will smear it and destroy it. Did the BJP do anything to counter that positioning of blame? Mere statements of disassociation with SRS from RSS or BJP are not enough, they need to launch solid campaigns and ensure that their message overwhelms the competing message. How can I counter the ladies in my family who voted against the BJP saying that “BJP is so communal – their people beat up women in Mangalore!! Chhi, chhi – so horrible they are!”. Logic doesn’t work, boss – that image has been formed and reinforced 1000 times with every possible outlet from the mainstream media, or even by hundreds of blogs.

Look, it’s a dirty game – one of the oldest tricks in marketing is for you to define the competitor’s position if they haven’t done it themselves. For years and years, BJP has been defined and confined to a small space defined by attributes such as “violent” and “communal” by the Congress while claiming the “secular” and “progressive” space for itself. It’s a huge disadvantage to the BJP because in the battle for converting a Congress voter to the BJP, BJP is forced to be either on the defensive (if the target is an educated secular voter) or go to the other extreme and actually go further into the “communal” positioning (if the target is a communally polarised voter) like Varun Gandhi did. This is not a winnable strategy! BJP cannot deliver the brand promise to either of these segments, and will eventually lose them. 

The following map shows which part won which Lok Sabha constituency in Orissa. (It is from http://164.100.9.52/ge2009/Final.html.) The blue is where Congress won, the grey is where BJD won and the red is where CPI won.

Compared to 2004, Orissa is better of in 2009 with respect to its leverage with the center. 

• In 2004 it had only 2 MPs from the ruling party, this time it has 6. I hope that leads to more ministers from Orissa, including one cabinet minister and one state minister. 
• In 2004 BJD with its 11 MPs was part of NDA  and BJD was dependent on BJP support in the state to get majority; so the ruling party in the center could just ignore BJD MPs of Orissa as it had no hope of getting their support. In 2009 BJD has 14 MPs. Although BJD has said it will not support UPA, the UPA may still harbor hope that in a crunch it may need BJD and so it would not completely ignore BJD.
• However, the fact that UPA has very good numbers in 2009, and NDA and Left have done bad, UPA does not desperately need BJD support or abstention. Thus BJD does not have that much bargaining power to demand some special goodies for Orissa in return for its support or abstention.
• This win increases the stature of Naveen Patnaik further and he will be taken more seriously in Delhi.
• Jay Panda, having become a Lok Sabha MP, will also have a higher stature now.

May 16 2009 12:54 AM Arizona Time (1:24 PM India):

Earlier in http://www.orissalinks.com/orissagrowth/archives/2036 I had suggested that a BJD MP contingent of 15+ MPs will be the best for Orissa. Later in http://www.orissalinks.com/orissagrowth/archives/2196 taking into account Naveen Patnaik’s statement that he would not support Congress, I revised my opinion and sugested that 12-13 BJD MPs and 8-9 Congress MPs would be good for Orissa.  

4:26 AM AZ/4:56 PM India: From http://www.eciresults.nic.in/StateWiseTrends.htm. (Leading- BJD: 14, CPI:1, Congress:6)

I kind of agree with the above analysis that BJD can put Orissa in a good bargaining position. In addition if there is a UPA government in center with 7+ Congress MPs there could be a cabinet minister and a state minister from Orissa; hopefully in ministries where they can be of help.

My prediction: Congress 7, BJD 12, BJP 2.

The Times Now projection for the rest of the country is as follows:

Following is from a report in Hindu.

Indian Oil Corporation has tied up finances for its Rs 29,777 crore Paradip refinery project in Orissa that would be commissioned by March 2012.

"We have received commitments from a consortia of banks," IOC Chairman Sarthak Behuria said.

SBI Caps, which was mandated to arrange Rs 14,700 crore debt for the project, has managed Rs 14,900 crore from 21 banks. State Bank of India (SBI) will be the largest lender with Rs 4,200 crore exposure.

IOC was likely to sign loan agreements with the consortia of banks on May 14.

"We will draw (from these loans) as and when we need them," he said but did not give details.

IOC is targeting commissioning of the refinery in first quarter of 2012. The board had recently split the refinery cum petrochemical complex into two, deciding to do the refinery first and the chemical unit will follow later.

Paradip refinery is being configured to process the toughest, heaviest and the most dirtiest crudes which are cheaper than the cleaner and easier varieties. The refinery will have a Nelson Complexity Index of 15.

Following is an excerpt from a report in Times of India.

…  According to government data, steel and electrical equipment makers lead the pack of corporates in drawing up investments in new capacities and expansion projects. The department of industrial policy and promotion has received investment proposals totalling around Rs 99,958 crore in January. This marks a 65% increase over proposals filed in December.

The government reckons that if the projects fructify, they could create about 65,000 new jobs. Among the January proposals, Rs 15,654 crore worth plans are for West Bengal, followed by Rs 15,088 crore for Chhattisgarh and Rs 13,381 crore for Orissa. Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat are the other states where investments have been planned.

With focus on infrastructure development, especially in the power sector, investment of Rs 39,157 crore has been announced for electrical equipment and Rs 38,798 crore in metallurgical industries.

Among the industries, electrical equipment, metallurgical industries, cement and gypsum products are the areas attracting the maximum investment plans.

Though these are mere investment plans, the figures are yet another pointer that the worst may be over and the economy looks set for a rebound. This may sound contra-intuitive after dire predictions of a long and deep slowdown, but economists and investment bankers indeed see an uptick as early as September, or latest by December.

Following up on an earlier posting http://www.orissalinks.com/orissagrowth/archives/1842 Dharitri reports that the center has agreed in principle to set up an army base in Orissa.

Most building roofs in India are flat, and this is ideal for having green roofs. Green roofing the buildings has many advantages:

• Decreases the temperature of the building, and the surroundings
• Puts less pressure in the drainage system; especially useful in towns like Cuttack which do not have proper drainage systems.
• More space for planting

Overall, it is good for the environment.

Here I will collect links on Greenroofing and use it to encourage my friends and family to have green roofs in their homes and buildings in Orissa. I hope the Government of Orissa and some of the city authorities will aso encourage this in Orissa and its cities and towns.

• Greenroofs101.
• Growing your roof (pdf)
• Greenroof infrastructure wiki.
  • a book on green roofs as part of its LATIS series.
  • http://greenroofs.org/
  • http://greenroofs.com/
  • http://www.greenroofplants.com/
  • http://roofmeadow.com/
    • FAQ.
  • ECOROOFS (GREENROOFS) – A MORE SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
  • The Pomegranate Center’s Homeowner Green Roof Guide
  • The Pennsylvania State University Center for Green Roof Research http://web.me.com/rdberghage/Centerforgreenroof/Home.html )
  • Casey Trees Study for Green Roofs in DC
  • Urban Natural Resources Institute January 2008 Webinar
  • City of Portland’s Ecoroof Plant Report
  • Green Roof Tree of Knowledge (GRTOK)
• Green roofs as urban ecosystems (pdf)
• What are green roofs (word)
•  

Following is an excerpt from a report in hospitalitybizindia.com.

Kamat Hotels India Ltd (KHIL) is in the process of developing 600 additional rooms under ‘The Orchid’ brand across India. Presently, properties are under development in Nagpur, Coimbatore, Raipur and Konark. Upcoming properties will be set up at greenfield locations and will be entirely managed and operated under the KHIL banner.

“The Orchid brand will continue to grow through tier I and II locations across India. For KHIL’s premium brand, we plan to tap emerging markets for potential locations,” says Vishal Kamat, Director, KHIL to Hospitality Biz. KHIL will develop a 30 room all-suite hotel in Konark, Orissa and a 100 room hotel in Nagpur. The Coimbatore and Raipur properties are expected to come up with about 200 and 120 rooms, respectively. “KHIL has always positioned The Orchid as a business hotel and we are keen that we develop and manage hotels under this brand to maintain its exclusivity in the market. Unlike Concept Hospitality Ltd (CHL), which presently manages a few Orchid hotels in New Delhi, Kollam and Jalandhar, KHIL will not operate simply as a hotel management entity in the market,” clarifies Kamat.

Following is from a report in Hospitality Biz India.

The Institute of Entrepreneurship Development (IED) is likely to set up three food processing centres (FPCs) in Orissa to provide infrastructural facilities for farmers to directly process their products. These FPCs are expected to be developed in PPP mode.

While, the required infrastructure will be created by the Orissa government, the day to day operations, including the centres’ maintenance will be managed by a private agency. Currently, the details of the FPCs are being worked out by the IED and the proposal will be sent to the Union Ministry of Food Processing Industries for assistance after the plan is finalised.

The state government has identified three locations, namely Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur and Phulbani, for setting up of these Centres. However, a final decision regarding the locations for these FPCs is yet to be taken.

Update: Expressbuzz.com has a related op-ed piece.

The communal political party of India which still is not apologetic about its role in Gujarat in 2002 and in Kandhamala in 2008 can be made to drastically lose its importance (or forced to abandon its communal elements) if in more and more states the main contenders are among Congress and regional parties. I have a feeling that come May 16th this communal party will become irrelevant in Orissa.  If more and more people see the third front as a viable alternative then it will automatically become the main competitor to Congress nationally and in the states many regional parties will choose the third front instead of the communal party for their partnership. This would then force the communal party to either become irrelevant or reinvent itself. This communal party has some very good people. Perhaps these people will come to senses and push to throw out the communal elements; otherwise the party will sink.

• Chungri Masala
• Baripada Mudhi
• Mansa Machchar Besar
• Dahi Machha
• Poi-Kosala Saag
• Dhenkanal Ghuguni
• Santula
• Janhi Masala
• Katak Dahibara
• Manik Raita
• Pitha
• Salepuri Rasagola
• Kendrapara Rasabali
• Chenapoda
• Chhena Payesh

The above Oriya delicacies are being  currently offered at the Hotel Kalinga Ashok Bhubaneswar in their family restaurant ‘Phulbani’. Non- vegetarian thali meal is Rs 120 and vegetarian thali meal is Rs 100.

The Anti-POSCO candidates for the gram panchayat elections have won. The details are below. I hope POSCO removes Dhinikia from its plan and both anti and pro POSCO people shun violence and illegal activities sich as blocking roads. Let POSCO be established in those areas where people want it and stay away from places where they are not wanted. Following is an excerpt from a report in orissadiary about the gram panchayat election results.

Posco Pratirodha Sangram Samiti … PPSS fielded its sarpanch candidate Mr Sisir Mohapatra and PS member candidate Mr Prakash Jena in this panchyat election. Mr Mohapatra is working as secretary of PPSS while Mr Jena has been languishing in Kujang jail since seven months after his arrest on Posco violence issue. PPSS candidate Mr Mohapatra has defeated his rival candidate Mrs Salila Nayak, wife of former sarpanch late Basant Nayak by margin 73 votes .Mr Mohapatra has got 2005 votes while Nayak has got 1932 votes.

Similarly, PS member candidate Mr Jena has also defeated his rivalry candidate Mr Nrusingh Das by 282 votes in which Jena has got 1672 votes while Mr Das has got 1390 votes. Sarpanch candidate Mr Nayak and PS member Mr Das who were defeated from this seat was backed by Posco supporters.

On the other hand, Zilla Parishad candidate Mr Saubhagaya Behera who was contesting as independent candidate has defeated his rival congress candidate Mr Rupakar Sethy by 995 votes. Mr Behera has got 6742 votes while Mr Sethi has got 5767 votes.

An article in the Statesman  gives the dismal state of affairs in West Bengal. Orissa must resist the communist party’s indiscriminate opposition to industries and industrialists to avoid going the West Bengal way. People of Orissa must also learn to avoid listening to leaders from West Bengal who are routinely invited by Orissa communist leaders. These people have already destroyed West Bengal. Listening to their ideas and acting on them will take Orissa on the wrong path. Following are excerpts from that article.

Bengal’s dismal economy

…  HIGH INDEBTEDNESS
According to the latest estimates of the RBI, West Bengal has a total debt of Rs 1.47 lakh crore, including small savings loan of Rs 61,000 crore and market loan of Rs 31,579 crore. It means, 8.5 crore of the state’s people have a per capita debt of more than Rs 17,000. Among the states, only Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra have larger indebtedness, although both have larger areas and population than West Bengal.

In order to reduce the states’ indebtedness and their fiscal imbalance, the Central government introduced the FRBM Act three years back. It provided opportunity to the states to be relieved of Central loan to the extent they would reduce their fiscal deficit. But unlike other states, West Bengal could not utilise this benefit. On the other hand, the state has indulged in gradual rise in its non-developmental expenditure, particularly in escalating its salary and pension bills.
Around 2001, the state government’s expenditure on this account was 155 per cent of its own tax collection. It has, however, managed to bring it down to 90 per cent, first by ceasing and then minimising government recruitment. In the comparable other states, this ratio varies between 55 and 70 per cent. Such a massive unproductive expenditure naturally leaves a paltry sum for the state’s economic development.

Dr Dasgupta, in his budget speeches, never mentions such huge indebtedness of the state nor ways to reduce it. Rather he always speaks high of the state’s economic growth, which, according to him, is more than that achieved by the country as a whole. The question then arises, what benefit has it brought to the state. A state’s high rate of economic progression should be reflected in its growing tax effort. But this is only 4.5 per cent in West Bengal, when the same is 8 to 10 per cent in other big states. Even in Orissa, it is 6.67 per cent.

This lowly mobilisation of its own tax resources not only points out its backwardness in industrial and commercial activities, but also makes the state dependent on external sources of finance, creating uncertainties in its economic planning.

LOW INDUSTRIALISATION
In the election time, Dr Dasgupta and his party comrades are lamenting the shifting of the Tata Motors’ Nano car plant from Singur to Sanand in Gujarat, pulling up the Opposition for its “irresponsible” protests.

But what about the 2,126 big and medium industrial units which have been shut down in the state during resistance and opposition less 32-year rule of the Left Front government? The number of closed small-scale industrial units is about 55,000. Is not the irresponsible and destructive trade unionism of Citu responsible for most of these closures? Besides, why are 80 collieries and 32 tea gardens closed?

Presently, West Bengal contributes only 4 per cent of the total industrial output of the country, which was 18 per cent in 1965 when the state achieved industrial supremacy. Since then, even in its own income, contribution of industry fell drastically from 36 per cent to only 11 per cent.

Moreover, whatever industrialisation the state has achieved, it is mostly concentrated in and around Kolkata. To be specific, 87 per cent of the industrial units in the state are localised in the five districts of Howrah, Hooghly, Burdwan and North and South 24-Parganas, apart from Kolkata. As commercial activities evolve around industries, most of the districts have poor growth of business and commerce as of industries.

It has resulted in a low rate of urbanisation in the districts away from Kolkata. In fact, in nine such districts, rural people constitute 90 per cent or more of the total population. This could be described as some sort of “ruralisation” that the state has achieved instead of urbanisation over time. It has created enormous pressure on agriculture for livelihood making it almost a subsistence work to many farm dependent people. Non-viable agriculture has compelled many to leave farming and become wage labourers.

Failure of the state to provide public irrigation and rural electrification, the two vital ingredients of Dr Dasgupta’s “alternative way” of development, keeps village people jobless over a larger part of the year.

UNEMPLOYMENT
The state government has failed to consolidate the gains from land reform measures of its initial years through setting up industries, particularly of the small scale type, by ensuring infrastructural development.

As compared to similar other states, West Bengal lags behind in road and electricity. Its per capita use of electricity, 380 kwh, is only above Bihar while the national average in this respect is 81 times higher. Similarly, Gujarat and Karnataka, with population being less than 39 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively, have more than 49 per cent and 135 per cent surfaced road, respectively, than West Bengal. Likewise, Maharashtra, with only 16 per cent more population, has 544 per cent more surfaced road than West Bengal. Thirty-two per cent of its villages still do not have all-weather roads.

The infrastructural deficiency has constrained economic development in West Bengal only to generate huge unemployment, the official estimate being 70 lakh. In relative sense, it has 26.6 per cent of rural unemployment and 24.0 per cent of urban unemployment. These are the second and the fifth highest among the comparable sixteen states when the respective national average is 11 per cent and 15.4 per cent.

It is surprising that rural unemployment of 31.27 lakh in West Bengal, unlike most of the other states, is higher than its urban unemployment. Moreover, its educated unemployment, amounting to 33.50 lakh and comprising 11 per cent of the total of the country, is also relatively high among the states. Among all the states, West Bengal, with an average unemployment rate of 4.93 per cent a year, is only behind Kerala which has 5.56 per cent of such rate.

Dr Dasgupta has the only option of self-help groups to provide jobs. He speaks of lakhs of such jobs each year, but never mentions how many of such groups can repay bank loans or stay viable for long. Joblessness brings in poverty which is almost one-third in the rural and one-fourth in the urban areas of the state with the proportion of population remaining starved or half-starved in a year reaching the maximum of 13 per cent among the states.

In fact, one important reason of closing down of so many of small scale industrial units in the state could be lack of demand in the villages plagued by a high rate of poverty and unemployment.

…  (The writer is Reader of Economics, Durgapur Government College)

Following is an excerpt about Paramount Airways plans for Bhubaneswar from a report in Economic Times:

Paramount forayed into eastern India last month, with flights to Kolkata, Guwahati and Agartala. It plans to add Shillong, Silchar, Imphal, Bhubaneswar, Ranchi and Cooch Behar to its network over the next year.

Following is an excerpt from a report in Business Standard.

Ahead of its plans to fly to international locales, Paramount Airways, the Chennai-based premium service carrier, is launching services to various other destinations in the country. The fully business-class airline is to commence services to 35 more cities, increasing its domestic routes to 50 by the end of 2010. It is to launch services to the northern region, including Delhi, and to the western and eastern parts, too.

“We are looking at having a strong domestic network, prior to starting our international operations. We are looking at connecting to every major airport in the country in a phased manner,” Paramount’s managing director, M Thiagarajan, told Business Standard here today.

Delhi is one of the new planned destinations and so are Imphal, Bhubaneswar, Ranchi, Bhopal, Nagpur, Porbander and other places in Gujarat. This is in addition to the earlier announced plans of launching services to Kolkata, Guwahati and Agartala, connecting these the south Indian cities of Chennai, Coimbatore and Kochi.

Following is an excerpt from a report in expressbuzz.com.

… A record number of 2,170 tractors were sold under farm subsidy scheme in the last financial year as against Government target of 1,500. Never before in the agriculture history of the State such a large number of tractors were sold in spite of Government subsidy. However, this was possible due to significant increase in the rate of subsidy, said Director of Agriculture and Food Production Arabinda Padhee.

Prior to the last kharif, the subsidy on the purchase of tractor was limited to Rs 45,000. The subsidy amount was doubled last year to Rs 90,000 and this is definitely the major motivating factor for the farmers.

Similarly, the sale of power tiller has gone up. Under farm subsidy, 7,762 power tillers were sold in the last fiscal as against a target of 5,529. The other mechanised implements sold last year include 292 reapers, 45 self-propelled rice transplanters, 65 tractor drawn rotavators, 831 power thrashers and 396 tractor drawn axial flow power thrashers.

… Earlier, farmers were not very keen on combine harvester because of its prohibitive cost. Cost of a combine harvester ranges from Rs 6 lakh to Rs 16 lakh. However, 49 combined harvesters were sold last year because of enhanced subsidy. Subsidy on a combined harvester is Rs 3 lakh for base model and Rs 4 lakh for top-end model, Padhee said.

Mechanisation of various agricultural operations has made significant impact on the productivity and cost of cultivation. While the reduction of cost varies from 16 to 26 per cent, productivity has gone up from 7 to 25 per cent, he said adding, this also reduced drudgery to a great extent.

The machineries have also provided additional income to its owners through custom hiring. Apart from self-employment, these machineries are also generating direct and indirect employment for the local youth, he said.

It is my impression that the opposition parties in Orissa over the years have focused more on finding fault with Government schemes and actions and often agitated to stop them completely. Although opposition should find fault with government actions, their approach of doing it indiscriminately, focusing on stopping the action altogether and only doing that, is a flawed approach and it has not only hampered the development of Orissa but has hampered the opposition parties themselves, especially when they are pitted against Naveen Patniak’s government.

Their appraoch would work if the government is seen by people to be corrupt and if other developments were not happening. However, that is not the case with Naveen Patnaik’s government. Naveen has distanced himself from corruption taints by taking swift action in removing his ministers and officers accused of corruption. So he and his government are not seen by the people as a corrupt government. Also there is no visible accumulation of wealth by Naveen Patnaik and neither does he have relatives dependent on him or relatives that he is trying to groom. So most people see that he does not have a reason to be corrupt. (Contesting in elections does require money. But most people  often do not question where that money comes from. Moreover, every party needs that money and spends that money. ) On the other hand they do see progress happening around, be it NREGS, or gram-sadaks or establishment of IIT. They also see Naveen Patnaik frequently dueling with the central government on getting more resources for Orisssa.

The opposition’s approach of fighting such a government by opposiing development programs indisciminately, and demanding that they be stopped, does not help them – may actually harm them, and also harms Orissa. It may harm them because because many people see them has blocking Orissa’s progress.

The opposition party should change their strategy and beat Naveen at his own game.

They should change their premise that Naveen is doing wrong things that need to be stopped to:

• In addition to what Naveen is doing, he must do XYZ to protect interests of UVW people,
• Naveen is not doing enough good things, and
• Naveen is missing opportunities.

They should take the development mantra down to towns districts and blocks.

They should agitate and ask the state government to do XYZ in UVW district. They should compare regions/towns/districts/blocks across Orissa and agitate that XYZ region/town/district/block does not have UVW or is being discriminated against PQR. Now when they succeed in convincing or forcing the government to take action many people will give them the credit; the same way Naveen Patnaik’s government gets credit for getting IIT and NISER to Orissa even though they were central government decisions and PM Manmohan Snigh paid personal attention to this. Alternatively, if the state government does not give in to their demand they can make that their election plank.

Let us take some specific examples.

People in Balasore have been demanding a medical college. A smart opposition could have made a big issue out of it. If it had succeeded after some agitation then the people would have remembered that when casting their vote.

Similarly, the Rourkela area, the second largest metropolitan area of Orissa, does not have a general university. In fact, I would go out on a limb and say that it is the largest metropolitan area in the country to not have a general university where one can puruse graduate (Masters and PhD) degrees in fields like Economics, Psychology, Physics, Business, etc. A smart opposition party could have taken advantage of that and created a movement in Rourkela for that and would have benefited by that. 

A smart opposition should have taken up the issue of the Central University of Orissa in Koraput starting in Bhubaneswar instead of in Koraput.

These are some glaring examples. Every region, every block, every district, every town needs development related things that the state government may have neglected. A smart opposition advocating those needs would get the attention of people there.

Such a strategy is a win-win and no-loss strategy. No one locally will oppose the demand of a medical college or a university. Thus there is no loss. It is a win-win because if they succeed in getting XYZ they can claim that their efforts led to getting XYZ and if they don’t they can blame the state government for neglecting the region/district/town/block and promise that if they come to power they would make XYZ  happen.

Instead, Orissa’s opposition often follows a very risky strategy which often goes against them. What they do is they oppose the establishment of UVW, say because it displaces X number of families. While some of those families (Y < X) may not want to be displaced many others are happy with the compensation package. But a large number of people who live nearby and are not displaced would really like UVW established. In agitating againts the establishment of UVW the opposition parties usually create a lot of drama, get a lot of lefties – many from outside state – involved, sometime pursue violence, many times block roads (causing a lot trouble to the locals) and get a lot of press.  By reading the press, which usually jumps on reporting events (bandhs, violence, road closure, etc.), they wrongly assume that they are getting a lot of popularity.

But actually while they do get the support of the Y families who do not want to displaced, they have lost support of X-Y families who want to move and the neighboring people who think they would have been benefitted by the project. So the opposition parties, by  doing this, basically harm themesleves as well as Orissa.

If they were smarter they would be more discriminating in their  targets and in their approach. Ofcourse, if the govt is violating laws (including displacement laws) they should oppose that; If the compensation is not fair they should pursue getting higher compensation; etc. Such a constructive approach would not only get them the votes of X (all of whom would get a better deal because of the opposition) but also of many people locally and across the state who would be impressed by the constructive approach.

(The opposition parties will say that they do indeed point out laws that are broken and even go to court. That is true. They do. But often they make many frivolous cases which take time but ultiamtely goes against the opposition. All that results is the delay of the project, lost opportunity, and a lot of people annoyed at the opposition for their negative impact.) 

So I will advise the opposition to at least pursue the three examples I mentioned above (Medical College in Balasore, University in Rourkela and starting of Central University of Orissa in Koraput), change their game plan in regards to Vedanta University, Posco, and Tata’s Kalinganagar project, and in general pursue the alternate strategy suggested above. Let me now be more specific on some of these.

• On Vedanta University, the opposition should create a database of all the people that are being displaced and make sure the promises made to them are kept. The opposition can make sure all other promises are being kept such as regarding to where water comes from, how the environment is not harmed, etc.
• On POSCO, they can again make sure that the promises made to the displaced people are kept. They can push for better compensation. They can team up with the state government in pushing the center for better lease rates. etc.