___________

The detailed party position is as follows:

UNITED PROGRESSIVE ALLIANCE – 262

• Congress – 206
•  Trinamool Congress – 19
•  DMK – 18
•  Nationalist Congress Party – 9
•  National Conference – 3
•  Jharkhand Mukti Morcha – 2
•  Muslim League Kerala State Committee – 2
•  All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen – 1
•  Bodoland People’s Front – 1
•  Kerala Congress (Mani) – 1

 NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE – 159

•  Bharatiya Janata Party – 116
•  Janata Dal-United – 20
•  Shiv Sena – 11
•  Rashtriya Lok Dal – 5
•  Akali Dal – 4
•  Telangana Rashtra Samithi – 2
•  Asom Gana Parishad – 1

 THIRD FRONT – 80

•  Bahujan Samaj Party – 21
•  CPI-M – 16
•  Biju Janata Dal – 14
•  AIADMK – 9
•  Telegu Desam Party – 6
•  CPI – 4
•  Janata Dal-Secular – 3
•  Forward Bloc – 2
•  Revolutionary Socialist Party – 2
•  MDMK – 1
•  Haryana Janhit Congress – 1
•  Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – 1

FOURTH FRONT – 26

•  Samajwadi Party – 22
•  Rashtriya Janata Dal – 4

OTHERS – 15

•  Independents – 9
•  Assam United Democratic Front – 1
•  Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi – 1
•  Swabhimani Paksha – 1
•  Nagaland People’s Front – 1
•  Sikkim Democratic Front – 1
•  VCK – 1

The six Congress MPs from Orissa are:

• Sanjay Bhoi from Bargarh
• Hemanand Biswal from Sundergarh (he defeated Jual Oram)
• Amarnath Pradhan from Sambalpur (he defeated Rohit Pujari)
• Srikant Jena from Balasore
• Bhakta Das from Kalahandi
• Pradeep Majhi from Nabarangpur

Sanjay Bhoi is considered a young leader. Hemanad Biswal is a tribal and was CM of Orissa before and the fact that he defeated a BJP national level official further increases his stature. Amarnath Pradhan has been a minster in Orissa. His nomination forced Rohit Pujari to quit Congress and join BJD and run against him. Srikant Jena has been a cabinet minister in the center. Bhakta Das has been a state minister in the center. I don’t know much about Pradeep Majhi. (Update: There is a profile article on Pradeep Majhi in http://www.breakingnewsonline.net/2009/05/youth-power-indian-youth-congress.html. and another one in http://news4u.co.in/?p=9577. He is 32 years old and a youth Congress leader.)

Based on the above, one (or hopefully both) of Hemanand Biswal  and Srikant Jena may become a cabinet minister in Delhi. Bhakta Das has a good chance of becoming a minister in Delhi.

The best of this election with respect to Orissa is that it has made BJP to be an inconsequential party in Orissa. In 2009 BJP has less assembly seats (6) from Orissa than it had parliament seats (7) in 2004 and it has ZERO parliament seats from Orissa in 2009. I hope BJP learns the lesson that people of Orissa do not fall for BJP’s agendas, they like peace and they were horrified by the happenings in Kandhamala and the ensuing bad name Orissa got worldwide. BJP showed its true colors by picking people like Ashok Sahu as its MP candidate from Kandhamala and Manoj Pradhan (who is accused of violence in Kandhamal  and is currently in jail) as its MLA candidate from G. Udaygiri. Unfortunately Manoj Pradhan won in G. Udaygiri. But fortunately the total tally of BJP in Orissa is SIX.

Now many BJP leaders are creating the spin that they have not done that bad nationally; and its just that Congress took over many of the third front seats. Although that is kind of true, it would be a mistake for BJP to not learn the lesson that at the India level there are fewer takers of its agenda and image. In this I agree with Swapan Dasgupta in this article in Pioneer. Following are some excerpts.

There is a facile explanation that many of those who neither anticipated nor wished for a Congress victory in the general election may fall back on. It goes something like this: the Congress and UPA surge was contributed by its spectacular successes in Kerala, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where its principal opponent was either the Left or another constituent of the ramshackle Third Front. The implication is that the NDA by and large held its ground.

Such an explanation would be an exercise in complete self-delusion. …

In the coming days, debate in the BJP is certain to centre on the question: what went wrong? Such a debate is not only necessary but welcome. Unfortunately, past experience suggests that the discussions often veer in the direction of the peripherals. There will be hand-wringing over the “internal sabotage” in Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand; speculation over why Om Prakash Chauthala rather than Bhajan Lal was chosen as the coalition partner in Haryana; mutterings over whimsical choice of candidates in some seats of Uttar Pradesh; and the inevitable back-biting over the campaign in the mass media.

It is not that these concerns are unwarranted. However, presuming that everything had turned out perfectly, the BJP and NDA would, at best, have improved its tally only marginally by, say, 15 seats. It wouldn’t have made any material difference to the outcome. Voters, it must be remembered, aren’t automatically swayed by the same concerns as activists.

In undertaking a post-mortem, it is important to not lose sight of the big picture. The BJP and NDA lost because voters found the Congress a more appealing prospect.  …

What was not neutralised was the overall image problem of the BJP—as a party that is backward-looking, too shrill and insufficiently attentive to contemporary concerns.

Arguably, such a regressive image of the party may be a consequence of media-generated “false consciousness”. But the fact remains that this perception has percolated down to a very large section of the population. And the BJP has done precious little to counter it.

In the wake of defeat, there is always a strong temptation to retreat into a back-to-the-basics shell. This is based on the foolish belief that people didn’t vote for a party because it wasn’t sufficiently pure. The belief is as ridiculous as the suggestion that the Soviet Union fell because it wasn’t adequately socialist! …

At the national level, image has come back to haunt the party—a problem compounded by leaders who believe it is more important to please activists rather than be responsive to ground realities.

I agree with most of the above analysis. If BJP needs to survive and do well it must desist from always pleasing its activists, disassociate itself from hate speeches (like the one allegedly given by Varun Gandhi), hate activities (like the ones in Kandhamala, post-Godhra, and to some ecxtent in Karnataka) and correct some of the wrongs that it has been associated with. If that means dumping some of its star leaders associated (rightly or wrongly) with this hate , that needs to be done. Where perception is important, hiding behind legalieties and smart-aleck statements like "If I have done what people are accusing me of, put me in jail" won’t cut it. People of India are not that stupid. They can see through such statements. (BJP should learn from Congress’s performance in Delhi and Punjab which is being partly attributed to its dropping tainted Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar from MP candidacy.)

Thus if BJP doesn’t do some housecleaning starting with cutting ties with activists who preach hate as well as  leaders who are associated with hate, they will also keep losing more allies – Nitish Kumar’s party is expected to be the next, and will keep moving away from power nationally. 

I came across a blog entry by Dilip D’Souza. I agree with one of the comments there. It says: 

Dilip is right. Centre Right is wide open and it is for BJP’s taking. It has proven credentials on this side. It can move into this house straightaway. All it needs to do is to jettison Modi, Varun etc. It should reduce Hindutva to the level of fighting appeasement politics. It will get its day in the sun.

Many of the comments mentioned in B. Raman’s article at http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/may/17/loksabhapoll-shock-and-awe-on-pro-hindutva-web-sites.htm also make a lot of sense. Following is a sample.

1. ‘I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India.’

4. … I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performance of BJP.’

… You also don’t want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi [Images] played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP’s reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction.’

‘Remember how George W Bush [Images] disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line, he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the deputy commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Schwarzkopf fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless.’

…’Beating up couples on Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Taliban [Images]isation and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Chennai who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement.’

‘Like the old saying: A drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk.

… Then the alienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them.’

‘Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there is no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion. The ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. It’s the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them, these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.’

…”On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, colour TV or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks big time.

4. Riots have consequences we can no longer be in denial on VHP’s conduct. There has to be accountability for the riot in Orissa.

10. Last but not the least, it would be in complete denial if it did not ask tough questions of how Acts of Adharma in the name of Hindutva have been condoned and the relevance of Hindutva as an ideology to guide on Socio-Economic issues.

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/#comment-45183

I strongly believe they have support on issues like minority appeasement and they are capable of creating a strong development platform. But the image BJP has created for itself, that of an extremist party, has alienated voters who would otherwise agree with them on many issues.

1. Ditch the RSS, Bajrang Dal etc : Imposing your idea of Hindutva and Hindu culture on the diverse Hindu population of India is NEVER going to work. It will only serve to shrink your Hindu base. Focus on issues, issues, issues – not people’s nightlife.

2. Ditch Modi : I am afraid the BJP is going to take up Modi as a leader and seal its own fate. This would be a huge mistake. They need a young moderate face. As one commentator pointed out – image is everything. I would not even call the Congress a political party – i think they are family business whose sole purpose is to perpetuate dynastic rule. But the image on the surface is suave enough to fool people.

3. Keep with the internal party democracy : I think this is what makes BJP a credible political party and wins it respect. If anything they need to strengthen it and consciously groom more leaders.

4. Strengthen the moderate voices and talk ISSUES from a principled perspective. Talk about true secularism and what it means, take about an inclusive India but one that does not compromise on its principles to appease minorities. Talk about development and your vision. Take the higher road. Mainstream Hindus want BJP to fight these issues through legislative means, not on the streets like a bunch of goons. Means have always been important to the Indian people. BJP needs to rise, elevate the dialogue and earn respect. It is possible to raise these issues without being jingoistic.

I am praying that the BJP is able to transform itself into a right-of-center party. Its voice is sorely needed on the Indian political landscape.

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/05/16/india-elections-2009-congress-humbles-bjp/#comment-45238 .

… a great observation – why DID the blame for Ram Sene stick to BJP? Very simple: if you don’t protect your brand then your competition will smear it and destroy it. Did the BJP do anything to counter that positioning of blame? Mere statements of disassociation with SRS from RSS or BJP are not enough, they need to launch solid campaigns and ensure that their message overwhelms the competing message. How can I counter the ladies in my family who voted against the BJP saying that “BJP is so communal – their people beat up women in Mangalore!! Chhi, chhi – so horrible they are!”. Logic doesn’t work, boss – that image has been formed and reinforced 1000 times with every possible outlet from the mainstream media, or even by hundreds of blogs.

Look, it’s a dirty game – one of the oldest tricks in marketing is for you to define the competitor’s position if they haven’t done it themselves. For years and years, BJP has been defined and confined to a small space defined by attributes such as “violent” and “communal” by the Congress while claiming the “secular” and “progressive” space for itself. It’s a huge disadvantage to the BJP because in the battle for converting a Congress voter to the BJP, BJP is forced to be either on the defensive (if the target is an educated secular voter) or go to the other extreme and actually go further into the “communal” positioning (if the target is a communally polarised voter) like Varun Gandhi did. This is not a winnable strategy! BJP cannot deliver the brand promise to either of these segments, and will eventually lose them. 

The following map shows which part won which Lok Sabha constituency in Orissa. (It is from http://164.100.9.52/ge2009/Final.html.) The blue is where Congress won, the grey is where BJD won and the red is where CPI won.

Compared to 2004, Orissa is better of in 2009 with respect to its leverage with the center. 

• In 2004 it had only 2 MPs from the ruling party, this time it has 6. I hope that leads to more ministers from Orissa, including one cabinet minister and one state minister. 
• In 2004 BJD with its 11 MPs was part of NDA  and BJD was dependent on BJP support in the state to get majority; so the ruling party in the center could just ignore BJD MPs of Orissa as it had no hope of getting their support. In 2009 BJD has 14 MPs. Although BJD has said it will not support UPA, the UPA may still harbor hope that in a crunch it may need BJD and so it would not completely ignore BJD.
• However, the fact that UPA has very good numbers in 2009, and NDA and Left have done bad, UPA does not desperately need BJD support or abstention. Thus BJD does not have that much bargaining power to demand some special goodies for Orissa in return for its support or abstention.
• This win increases the stature of Naveen Patnaik further and he will be taken more seriously in Delhi.
• Jay Panda, having become a Lok Sabha MP, will also have a higher stature now.

May 16 2009 12:54 AM Arizona Time (1:24 PM India):

Earlier in http://www.orissalinks.com/orissagrowth/archives/2036 I had suggested that a BJD MP contingent of 15+ MPs will be the best for Orissa. Later in http://www.orissalinks.com/orissagrowth/archives/2196 taking into account Naveen Patnaik’s statement that he would not support Congress, I revised my opinion and sugested that 12-13 BJD MPs and 8-9 Congress MPs would be good for Orissa.  

4:26 AM AZ/4:56 PM India: From http://www.eciresults.nic.in/StateWiseTrends.htm. (Leading- BJD: 14, CPI:1, Congress:6)

I kind of agree with the above analysis that BJD can put Orissa in a good bargaining position. In addition if there is a UPA government in center with 7+ Congress MPs there could be a cabinet minister and a state minister from Orissa; hopefully in ministries where they can be of help.

My prediction: Congress 7, BJD 12, BJP 2.

The Times Now projection for the rest of the country is as follows:

Update: Expressbuzz.com has a related op-ed piece.

The communal political party of India which still is not apologetic about its role in Gujarat in 2002 and in Kandhamala in 2008 can be made to drastically lose its importance (or forced to abandon its communal elements) if in more and more states the main contenders are among Congress and regional parties. I have a feeling that come May 16th this communal party will become irrelevant in Orissa.  If more and more people see the third front as a viable alternative then it will automatically become the main competitor to Congress nationally and in the states many regional parties will choose the third front instead of the communal party for their partnership. This would then force the communal party to either become irrelevant or reinvent itself. This communal party has some very good people. Perhaps these people will come to senses and push to throw out the communal elements; otherwise the party will sink.

It is my impression that the opposition parties in Orissa over the years have focused more on finding fault with Government schemes and actions and often agitated to stop them completely. Although opposition should find fault with government actions, their approach of doing it indiscriminately, focusing on stopping the action altogether and only doing that, is a flawed approach and it has not only hampered the development of Orissa but has hampered the opposition parties themselves, especially when they are pitted against Naveen Patniak’s government.

Their appraoch would work if the government is seen by people to be corrupt and if other developments were not happening. However, that is not the case with Naveen Patnaik’s government. Naveen has distanced himself from corruption taints by taking swift action in removing his ministers and officers accused of corruption. So he and his government are not seen by the people as a corrupt government. Also there is no visible accumulation of wealth by Naveen Patnaik and neither does he have relatives dependent on him or relatives that he is trying to groom. So most people see that he does not have a reason to be corrupt. (Contesting in elections does require money. But most people  often do not question where that money comes from. Moreover, every party needs that money and spends that money. ) On the other hand they do see progress happening around, be it NREGS, or gram-sadaks or establishment of IIT. They also see Naveen Patnaik frequently dueling with the central government on getting more resources for Orisssa.

The opposition’s approach of fighting such a government by opposiing development programs indisciminately, and demanding that they be stopped, does not help them – may actually harm them, and also harms Orissa. It may harm them because because many people see them has blocking Orissa’s progress.

The opposition party should change their strategy and beat Naveen at his own game.

They should change their premise that Naveen is doing wrong things that need to be stopped to:

• In addition to what Naveen is doing, he must do XYZ to protect interests of UVW people,
• Naveen is not doing enough good things, and
• Naveen is missing opportunities.

They should take the development mantra down to towns districts and blocks.

They should agitate and ask the state government to do XYZ in UVW district. They should compare regions/towns/districts/blocks across Orissa and agitate that XYZ region/town/district/block does not have UVW or is being discriminated against PQR. Now when they succeed in convincing or forcing the government to take action many people will give them the credit; the same way Naveen Patnaik’s government gets credit for getting IIT and NISER to Orissa even though they were central government decisions and PM Manmohan Snigh paid personal attention to this. Alternatively, if the state government does not give in to their demand they can make that their election plank.

Let us take some specific examples.

People in Balasore have been demanding a medical college. A smart opposition could have made a big issue out of it. If it had succeeded after some agitation then the people would have remembered that when casting their vote.

Similarly, the Rourkela area, the second largest metropolitan area of Orissa, does not have a general university. In fact, I would go out on a limb and say that it is the largest metropolitan area in the country to not have a general university where one can puruse graduate (Masters and PhD) degrees in fields like Economics, Psychology, Physics, Business, etc. A smart opposition party could have taken advantage of that and created a movement in Rourkela for that and would have benefited by that. 

A smart opposition should have taken up the issue of the Central University of Orissa in Koraput starting in Bhubaneswar instead of in Koraput.

These are some glaring examples. Every region, every block, every district, every town needs development related things that the state government may have neglected. A smart opposition advocating those needs would get the attention of people there.

Such a strategy is a win-win and no-loss strategy. No one locally will oppose the demand of a medical college or a university. Thus there is no loss. It is a win-win because if they succeed in getting XYZ they can claim that their efforts led to getting XYZ and if they don’t they can blame the state government for neglecting the region/district/town/block and promise that if they come to power they would make XYZ  happen.

Instead, Orissa’s opposition often follows a very risky strategy which often goes against them. What they do is they oppose the establishment of UVW, say because it displaces X number of families. While some of those families (Y < X) may not want to be displaced many others are happy with the compensation package. But a large number of people who live nearby and are not displaced would really like UVW established. In agitating againts the establishment of UVW the opposition parties usually create a lot of drama, get a lot of lefties – many from outside state – involved, sometime pursue violence, many times block roads (causing a lot trouble to the locals) and get a lot of press.  By reading the press, which usually jumps on reporting events (bandhs, violence, road closure, etc.), they wrongly assume that they are getting a lot of popularity.

But actually while they do get the support of the Y families who do not want to displaced, they have lost support of X-Y families who want to move and the neighboring people who think they would have been benefitted by the project. So the opposition parties, by  doing this, basically harm themesleves as well as Orissa.

If they were smarter they would be more discriminating in their  targets and in their approach. Ofcourse, if the govt is violating laws (including displacement laws) they should oppose that; If the compensation is not fair they should pursue getting higher compensation; etc. Such a constructive approach would not only get them the votes of X (all of whom would get a better deal because of the opposition) but also of many people locally and across the state who would be impressed by the constructive approach.

(The opposition parties will say that they do indeed point out laws that are broken and even go to court. That is true. They do. But often they make many frivolous cases which take time but ultiamtely goes against the opposition. All that results is the delay of the project, lost opportunity, and a lot of people annoyed at the opposition for their negative impact.) 

So I will advise the opposition to at least pursue the three examples I mentioned above (Medical College in Balasore, University in Rourkela and starting of Central University of Orissa in Koraput), change their game plan in regards to Vedanta University, Posco, and Tata’s Kalinganagar project, and in general pursue the alternate strategy suggested above. Let me now be more specific on some of these.

• On Vedanta University, the opposition should create a database of all the people that are being displaced and make sure the promises made to them are kept. The opposition can make sure all other promises are being kept such as regarding to where water comes from, how the environment is not harmed, etc.
• On POSCO, they can again make sure that the promises made to the displaced people are kept. They can push for better compensation. They can team up with the state government in pushing the center for better lease rates. etc.

(Note to readers: Please make your own prediction. Also, if you see any other newspaper making a prediction, please give us a link. Thanks.)

Sarat Pattanayak in his Capital notes in Pioneer:

The BJD, they predict, will emerge as the single largest party with 60 to 65 seats. The Congress will get 50 to 55 seats and the BJP will have 15 to 20 seats.

Sanjeev Patro in his article in expressbuzz.com:

The final tally could be somewhat like this. The INC might muster 50, BJD slip to 56-58 seats and BJP get around 25 seats and others including JMM, Independents and Left parties between 13-16 seats.

NDTV’s prediction  about the MPs after the second phase of elections, which it calls as trends emerging:

NDA – 3, Congress – 10 and Third Front (including BJD) – 8

NDTV’s Gfk Mode opinion Poll:

NDA : 2-4, Congress: 7-9 and Third Front (including BJD) – 9-11

Times of India reports on BJD strategist and Rajya Sabha MP Pyari babu’s estimates for BJD. Following are some excerpts:

"We are getting a minimum of 85 Assembly and 12 Lok Sabha seats. There cannot be any dispute on this figure," BJD Rajya Sabha MP and party’s chief poll strategist Pyari Mohan Mohapatra told TOI. …

The numbers refuse to go below 85. This includes 38 from constituencies that went to polls in the first phase and 47 from those in the second phase," he asserted.

Mohapatra even predicted the "possibility of the number of seats going up further". "In at least 33 Assembly constituencies, BJD has a 50 per cent chance. Anything can happen," he said.

Mohapatra has all bad news for his "enemy" Bijay Mohapatra, who fought from his traditional Patkura Assembly constituency on BJP ticket. "He is losing. The margin could be 7,000 to 8,000 votes this time," he said emphatically. "Had Bijay Mohapatra contested as an Independent, we would have been in trouble. But things became easier for us after he joined BJP," he observed. He had the similar prediction for BJP’s Puri LS candidate Braja Kishore Tripathy, who quit BJD after Naveen Patnaik gave the ticket to Pinaki Mishra, who left Congress. "Tripathy would be defeated," he claimed. "We will bag 12 LS seats. This could also go up because in Berhampur, Koraput and Jajpur anything may happen," he added.

Mohapatra did not sound very optimistic about BJP‘s performance and said the saffron brigade might have to content with less than 15 Assembly seats. "My reading is that if the BJP is reduced to single digit the Congress tally could go up to 45," pointed out.

Mohapatra had his reasons behind the likely victory of his party. "The BJP fought the elections on a negative note of constantly criticizing BJD as a traitor. It might work for a few days, but not always. The party had also no chief ministerial candidate to project before the voters. The Congress had the same problem and it remained embroiled in its own problems wasting much of its time. But we were far ahead in making preparations. Naveen Patnaik is our sole star attraction whom the voters see as transparent and clean. And there was the Rs two rice and concrete roads to villages made us invincible," he maintained, adding "The body language of people attending our meetings gave firm indications that we are going to turn the table on others." 

The interview is at http://election.rediff.com/interview/2009/apr/22/loksabhapolls-its-very-important-india-has-a-strong-government.htm. I mostly agree with Sam Pitroda’s views. At the state level, now that Naveen Patnaik has ruled out supporting a Congrees led government, I hope he has enough MPs that he is not ignored by the center and at the same time there are a good number of Congress MPs so that the Congress MPs have a voice as well as a decent representation in the central ministry. A split of 12-13 BJD and 8-9 Congress MPs may work. (Earlier in http://www.orissalinks.com/orissagrowth/archives/2036 I had suggested that more BJD MPs would be good for Orissa. But at that time, my view was BJD giving support to a UPA government in Delhi. Without that support, more Congress MPs would be better for Orissa. Hence the current thought that with a UPA government in Delhi, 12-13 BJD MPs and 8-9 Congress MPs would be good for Orissa.)

Following are some excerpts from the Rediff interview.

Specifically, what’s been so great about the Manmohan Singh government?

Manmohan Singh has done a tremendous job under the circumstances. In the last five years, a lot of new initiatives were taken and the right seeds were planted, whether it has to do with employment guarantee schemes — which is working very well and we need to expand that — or right to education, right to information, nuclear policy — there were a lot of big initiatives.

Now, we need to continue the unfinished agenda. And, we can’t really do all of that if we have a weak government with a lot of conflicting priorities and coalitions. We have learnt that in the last five years.

I give them a lot of credit that we could last for five years. It required a great deal of maneuvering with the various factions of the coalition, for them to continue for five years. So, the first thing, it is very important that the Indian people elect a government that is stable, that looks at the future growth prospects, capitalises on the financial crisis world over and also plays an important role in the global security scenario. 

… The Commission has brought out reports with a slew of recommendations and set forth an agenda.

We have set the agenda and now we need to implement them. And a weak government cannot implement any of these things.

You are convinced that these will be implemented if there is a second term for the Dr Singh government?

It is guaranteed. The prime minister is totally committed to implementing the Knowledge Commission’s recommendations. President Pratibha Patil [Images] just inaugurated the knowledge network to connect all our universities, all our laboratories, all our R&D institutions — to gigabyte bandwidth, broadband network. It is going to cost us $2.3 billion. It is already in the works. That’s going to transform Indian education, Indian R&D. So, we have some very ambitious programmes and Manmohan Singh has planted the seeds and now we need to continue.

Part 1 of Interview.

Part 2 of Interview.

Part 3 of Interview.

Part 4 of Interview.

The transcript is at http://ibnlive.in.com/news/comparing-me-with-modi-unbelievable-patnaik/90629-37.html. Following are some key excerpts.

Karan Thapar: Chief Minister, the polls are suggesting that you might be in a position to form a government on your own in Orissa after the elections. Half way through the voting with just one more round left, are you confident?

Naveen Patnaik: As a matter of fact, I am confident. I think with the blessings of the people of my state the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is certainly coming through with a single majority. The party is having its own majority both to form a state government and to send a number of MPs to the Lok Sabha.

Karan Thapar: But on the question of the Lok Sabha, the problem is that the same polls are suggesting that you are going to end up with fewer seats than you had in 2004. Now can you accept that?

Naveen Patnaik: No, I don’t think so. It is possible because at that time we were fighting only 12 seats and out of them we got 11 and this time we are fighting 18 seats, I expect to do much-much better this time.

…

Naveen Patnaik: It was important to break up with the BJP because I don’t consider them healthy any longer for my state after Kandhamal – which I think is very apparent to everyone. Before Kandhamal, we were lucky in the early years of the state government not to have a serious communal problem at all. But Kandhamal was very tragic and serious.

Karan Thapar: So, you are saying that after Kandhamal you couldn’t have continued with the BJP in any circumstances?

Naveen Patnaik: It had become very, very difficult.

Karan Thapar: You hold the BJP and their associated allies responsible for what happened in Kandhamal?

Naveen Patnaik: When you interviewed me a few months ago about Kandhamal, I made it very clear that our administration had arrested a number of persons who belong to their sister organisations for the violence in Kandhamal.

Karan Thapar: I want very much to talk about your relationship with the BJP and why it ended in the way it did but first let us concentrate on the elections. If you don’t get an outright majority in the Vidhan Sabha, then you might look at the BJP for the extra seats that you need?

Naveen Patnaik: That will never happen; that we have already clarified.

Karan Thapar: In which case if you don’t get a majority on your own will you form a minority government or prefer to sit in the Opposition?

Naveen Patnaik: Well, I don’t doubt for a moment that my party will clear majority by itself.

Karan Thapar: That is your confidence but if you don’t then?

Naveen Patnaik: As a matter of fact, I haven’t thought about it at all.

Karan Thapar: So, you are ruling out the possibility of sitting in the Opposition?

Naveen Patnaik: In a democracy every party has to sit in the Opposition one time or the other.

Karan Thapar: So, even though you are denying it, you are mentally prepared for that possibility?

Naveen Patnaik: I don’t think that eventuality is a possibility in this election at all.

Karan Thapar: That the election will tell us in just four weeks time. Let’s come to the Centre. You have repeatedly said you will support a non-Congress and a non-BJP government, so does that mean that you are going to support the Third Front?

Naveen Patnaik: The BJD will not support a Congress-led government or a BJP-led government.

Karan Thapar: You have laid a lot of emphasis on the word ‘led’ so could you support a government in which the Congress and the BJP are a part but not in the leadership position?

Naveen Patnaik: Well, I see a situation which is very fluid at the moment as far as the Lok Sabha elections are concerned.

I perceive that the two national parties (the BJP and the Congress) shrinking even further in the numbers to what they have been in the recent past and there is a possibility of another force – call it a Third Front or a Fourth Front or any front – coming up.

And the interest of my party is to support a government which would fulfill the just demands of my state which have been neglected by the Central Government perpetually.

…

Karan Thapar: Let me approach it a bit differently. You have made it clear that there is no way you can support Manmohan Singh for another term as the Prime Minister of India but if it were to emerge that Sharad Pawar, with whom you have a seat-sharing arrangement in Orissa, could be a possible prime minister would the BJD support Sharad Pawar?

Naveen Patnaik: We can certainly look into that with a great level of possibility.

Karan Thapar: What does that mean?

Naveen Patnaik: It means what I have said. I assume or I think that there will be a government which will not be led by the Congress or the BJP.

Karan Thapar: But if it is led by Sharad Pawar, would you support it?

Naveen Patnaik: Let us put names aside. I have said it earlier and I repeat that the BJD’s interest is in supporting a government which will fulfill the just demand of my state. Orissa has been neglected for ages by the Central Government.

…

Karan Thapar: Let’s talk about the end of your 11-year alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. So far you have told the world that this alliance ended because the two parties couldn’t agree on certain seat-adjustments for the future. But beyond that, to what extent had you begun to feel suffocated by the BJP’s anti-minority ideology?

Naveen Patnaik: Well, as you know, a few months ago when Kandhamal took place, it was very disturbing and very worrying. It was horrifying what happened and ever since then the unease began between my party and the Bharatiya Janata Party.

It had been there earlier too because they hadn’t been the most honest of allies. In various elections they would try to undercut my party, but those are minor things in comparison to what happened in Kandhamal and its aftermath.

Karan Thapar: So Kandhamal in a sense was a breaking point for you.

Naveen Patnaik: Yes indeed, and their behaviour as allies within the Assembly and outside it was incorrect in many ways.

Karan Thapar: When Kandhamal happened, the urban-middle classes began to compare you with Narendra Modi. Some people even called you a second Narendra Modi. Did that upset, even hurt you?

Naveen Patnaik: I would never personally consider myself anything like that. I think in a secular manner, I have a secular background, so I never consider that as a correct allegation.

Karan Thapar: Which means that the comparison with Narendra Modi must have been deeply hurtful.

Naveen Patnaik: I found it just unbelievable, that is all.

Karan Thapar: When I interviewed you just after what happened in Kandhamal, you said to me that every single bone in your body was secular. Would you say today that the break with BJP proves that to be the case?

Naveen Patnaik: What would you say Karan? You have known me all my life.

Karan Thapar: I would say that is the case.

Naveen Patnaik: Thank you.

Karan Thapar: Was it done with that in mind?

Naveen Patnaik: One always stands by one’s beliefs in the end, don’t you think? Or one should stand by one’s beliefs.

Karan Thapar: Many would say that it took Naveen Patnaik nine years to stand up to his belief. Those who know you have always known that you were secular, that you were liberal and that you were modern.

They were astounded to know that you actually had an alliance with the BJP and that it lasted for so long. Why did it take you so long to stand up for your beliefs?

Naveen Patnaik: You’ll have seen that for the last dozen years, the BJP has a number of secular allies. You can think of Mamata Banerjee, Hegde, Farooq Abdullah, George Fernandes or even Nitish Kumar – they have a number of secular allies.

And in Orissa, we were fortunate enough that during the first eight years of my tenure there were no serious communal incidents. It’s not till Kandhamal happened that the whole picture changed.

Karan Thapar: People say that the whole problem you had over seat adjustments was in fact deliberately manufactured by you as a way of ensuring that the alliance would end and this is proven by the fact that when you made them an offer which you could live it, it was–even as you described it in your own words–a deliberately humiliating offer because you knew they would not accept it.

Naveen Patnaik: I have never called it in my own words, ‘a deliberately humiliating offer’.

Karan Thapar: (BJP MP) Chandan Mitra said you did.

Naveen Patnaik: Well then I don’t know what he is talking about.

Karan Thapar: But did you deliberately offer a derisory number of seats so as to force the alliance apart?

Naveen Patnaik: No, I think my offer was pretty realistic for they really could not afford to stand for more than a few seats because their whole period in the state government marked quite a lot of incompetence.

The people of Orissa are a peace-loving people and I think that they had gone off the BJP after Kandhamal, and you will see that after the results in the coming election, the results that come out on May 16.

…

Had you been in touch with the Left parties and the NCP and had they given you some understanding or assurance that if you did break with the BJP, they would be there to stand behind and beside you?

Naveen Patnaik: Well Karan, you may look at the other side of the picture. They could have found me rather than me finding them, the new seat-adjustment partner parties.

…

Karan Thapar: Absolutely. But let me get back to this more serious point. Had you been in touch, had you sent out feelers to the NCP and the Left?

Naveen Patnaik: In politics of course, as you know, one meets friends from all parties and we all air our points of view. We moved very swiftly once the alliance broke down. Our new friends very quickly offered their support for which I am very grateful.

Karan Thapar: If I read you correctly, then you had been in touch with them – perhaps quietly, perhaps surreptitiously – but you had a sense of assurance that they would be there.

Naveen Patnaik: Nothing surreptitious about it at all. It’s all quite clear.

Karan Thapar: Done quite openly?

Naveen Patnaik: I think Karan sometimes you will see things in black and white. Things are sometimes a bit more subtle than that.

…

Naveen Patnaik: I don’t think it is as simple as that. It is a straight, clear-cut seat-adjustment with three parties – the CPI, the CPM and the NCP.

…

Karan Thapar: If you win, will this be your last term as Chief Minister or having finished then 14 years in office would you want a fourth term?

Naveen Patnaik: Let’s see how it goes.

Karan Thapar: You mean you could be hungry for more?

Naveen Patnaik: I think that as long as – and you may think this is a very hackneyed or cliché way of speaking – but as long as one is interested and can do good and the people wish to elect you, then there is no harm in that at all.

This was a tricky interview and Naveen Patnaik and BJD may get a bit cornered by one answer of this interview. By saying out clearly and loudly that BJD will not support either Congress led or BJP led governments, it limits their post-election options, especially since Naveen Patnaik often stands by his words. On the face of it this may seem damaging to Orissa’s cause if BJP or Congress do lead but either coalition will be fragile enough that they will not be able to ignore what a BJD led government in Orissa will demand. (On the other hand if Naveen Patnaik had given an answer that he will be willing to consider joining a Congress led government after elections then BJP would have taken advantage of it and called BJD as Congress-B. Having broken the alliance with BJP he could not have said that he will consider joining a BJP led government. So he basically did not have a choice.)

The following was found as a comment on a tathya.in report.

Er. Ramchandra Hansdah NIT, Rourkela passed out is also contesting from Saraskana (Mayurbhanj) constituency from NCP supported by BJD.

Upon verification in the Chief Election Officer of Orissa’s web page (constituency 27) it shows that Ramchandra Hansdah graduated from NIT RKL in 1987. Note that a different Ramchandra Hansdah was a congress(I) MLA from Bahalda in 1980.

This is scary. Following are excerpts from an opinion piece in Telegraph.

In retrospect, the violence in Kandhamal in Orissa last year seems like the first step in an electoral strategy, a strategy that can be broadly described as the Gujarat model. For those who don’t remember those events, starting in the last week of August, Christians in the Kandhamal district suffered a month and a half of systematic intimidation, killing and displacement. Figures released by the Orissa government put the figure at over 12,000 refugees, fed and sheltered in government camps. This doesn’t account for those Christians who fled their homes and sought refuge in places other than these refugee camps, so the overall figure for the displaced is higher.

The troubles began after Swami Laxmananda Saraswati, a Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader, was murdered by ‘Maoists’. The sangh parivar alleged that his murder had been organized by Christians and used his funeral procession to stoke murderous violence against Christians in the area. Having ‘cleansed’ Christians from their homes, Hindutva militants declared with impunity that they wouldn’t be allowed back till they re-converted to their ‘parent’ faith, Hinduism. There were reports of groups of Christians submitting to ritual ‘shuddhi’ ceremonies organized by these custodians of Hinduism’s integrity, to purge them of Christianity, that alien contagion.

The main accused in this campaign of carnage and killing was Manoj Pradhan. Charged with more than a dozen cases of murder and arson, Manoj Pradhan is currently lodged in jail in G. Udayagiri, a town in Kandhamal. The not-so-subtle irony is that Pradhan is also the Bharatiya Janata Party’s official candidate for the G. Udayagiri assembly seat in the approaching elections. B.B. Ramachandran Harichandan, the BJP’s leader in the state’s legislative assembly, offered a familiar defence: “he has been arrested under false charges. In any case, he is not yet proved guilty in the court of law. Let the people decide his fate”.

The BJP’s nominee for the newly delimited Kandhamal Lok Sabha seat is a former IPS officer, Ashok Sahu, currently the state president of the Hindu Jagaran Samukhya, who is notable for having declared without the inconvenience of evidence that Christian terrorists had killed Laxmananda Saraswati.

A pogrom is the first step in the Gujarat model. The object of the pogrom is polarization, specifically the consolidation of a Hindu majority. The third ‘P’ in this grim sequence is political victory at the polls. …

In a circumstance where, just over six months ago, dozens of Christians had been killed and thousands made homeless, … But the last word in this matter must be reserved for Ashok Sahu, the BJP’s Lok Sabha candidate for the Kandhamal seat. He said, “What happened in Kandhamal is no reason to be ashamed about, at least not for me. Today Kandhamal symbolizes Hindu culture.”

The reason these contests in Kandhamal are of historic and of national importance is because they show us the BJP being true to its impulses, its gut beliefs. Over the last few years (with the exception of Gujarat), the BJP has been compelled by political and electoral necessity to abide by anodyne coalition manifestos. Now that the party doesn’t have a tiresomely ‘secular’ partner to alienate in Gujarat, it’s taking the opportunity to be itself.

… In recent times, majoritarian organizations in this country have tried to expand the domain of permissible violence. The Sri Ram Sena in Karnataka, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena in Maharashtra, and the BJP in Orissa and Karnataka have used thuggish intimidation in the name of a defence of culture. Their targets have been the vulnerable and the weak: young women, poor north Indian men and religious minorities. This election is a pointer to the likely political behaviour of the BJP parties were it to be sprung from the straitjacket of coalition politics. And should it win the Kandhamal contests, something ominous shall have been proved

He is an independent candidate from Karanjia. A web page and blog set up for his campaign is at http://www.baidyasing.org/.

Following is an excerpt from a report in Times of India.

Launching a scathing attack at the UPA and NDA, Patnaik said these alliances work on national agenda and a state’s interest is never a priority for them. "Orissa has been a victim of discrimination, particularly when it came to coal and mineral royalty and rail connectivity both during UPA and NDA regimes," Pattnaik said. "Leaders of different political parties from other states now touring Orissa and shedding crocodile tears, but they will not be successful here," Patnaik said.

Other potential representatives should learn from this young leader. Following is an excerpt from a report in ExpressBuzz.

The BJD candidate for Sambalpur Parliamentary constituency Rohit Pujari is all prepared for the contest.

… So well had he done his homework that after the boundaries were redrawn he strengthened his organisation in the newly included Athamallick and Chendipada areas and had even formed booth committees.The technocrat had even put in place committees at the gram panchayat and booth level and maintained a rapport with them through SMSs and phones. And this seems to have paid dividends for the young leader.

… But now it seems Pujari has also done his groundwork listing out problems of the PC area wise and priorities.

The young leader also listed out the problems the voters face in the constituency.

In a document handed out to the mediamen he has listed out the need to combat Naxalism in Sambalpur and Deogarh districts as the biggest challenge.

He attributed the growth of Naxalism to lack of development in rural areas.

The document also lays thrust on providing and promoting technical education and developing sports infrastructure to channelise youth power productively.

He also has something for the chillies and fruit growing areas as he has assured to look into the long pending demand for a food processing unit and cold storage.

Diversion of NH-6 in Deogarh and Sambalpur to contain road accidents and casualties also finds mention and so also an LPG dealership, as the block does not have one.

Ask for it and he has all in the document.

Promoting tourism, cleaning of Mahanadi river, upgradation of Jamadarpali airstrip, air ticketing facility, development of education corridor to compliment the presence of VSS Medical and VSS University of Technology, museums, expediting Kendriya Vidyalaya and Navodaya Vidyalaya and development of technical education in Deogarh has also been assured.

The document also touches upon issues like training to tribal girls to make them economically independent.

Some of the points made by BJD are:

• People of Orissa have seen the frightening consequences of BJP and the Sangh Parivaar’s conspiracy to make Orissa like Modi’s Gujarat , in the hellish violence in Kandhamal, Gajapati and Sundergarh districts.
• The BJP government had declared the Gujarat earthquake a national calamity but refused to declare the Orissa super cyclone as a national calamity.
• Like BJP, Congress gave 2000 crores for the Bihar floods and did not even give 100 crores for the Orissa floods.

Following is from Sambada.

The following is from http://ceoorissa.nic.in/PC%20candidates%20of%20first%20phase.pdf.

The following is from the cover story of ndia Today of September 22, 2008. It was done by Economists Bibek Debroy and Laveesh Bhandari.

The data is about how the states have improved (accelerated) since 1991. Overall Orissa is number 3 among all states. (See the last table.) With respect to individual parameters Orissa is number 7 in Agriculture (best in the east), number 2 in consumer markets (best in the east), number 2 in macro economy behind Assam, number 1 in education, number 8 in governance, number 6 in investment, number 2 in health and number 12 in infrastructure.